Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea · Analysis updated 17:31 UTC
Pamplona vs Avance Ezcabarte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pamplona and 0.90 for Avance Ezcabarte, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Avance Ezcabarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pamplona home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avance Ezcabarte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 0–115.6%
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Pamplona
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazte Berriak · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
Avance Ezcabarte
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T17:15:00.000Z · Pamplona 0-0 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Pamplona 4-0 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-02-17T15:15:00.000Z · Pamplona 2-2 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-09-30T14:30:00.000Z · Pamplona 3-2 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Pamplona 4-3 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-12-10T14:30:00.000Z · Pamplona 0-1 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · Pamplona 2-0 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2021-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · Pamplona 2-0 Avance Ezcabarte (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.