· Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
Pamplona vs Izarra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pamplona and 1.20 for Izarra, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Pamplona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pamplona home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Izarra away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pamplona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Pamplona and 1.20 for Izarra, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Pamplona
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazte Berriak · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
Izarra
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Kozkor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.