Panadería Pulido vs Mensajero Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Panadería Pulido and 1.53 for Mensajero, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Panadería Pulido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Panadería Pulido win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.12 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Panadería Pulido to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Panadería Pulido and 1.53 for Mensajero, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 51% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Panadería Pulido win51%

Draw21%

Mensajero win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
1–18.4%
2–26.8%
1–26.4%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Panadería Pulido

Mensajero

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	6	5	0	1	14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Mensajero	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Marino	6	3	1	2	6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	San Miguel	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	2	3	1	3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Estrella	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Anaza	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	0	2	4	-6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	0	2	4	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Panadería Pulido win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.