· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Panadería Pulido vs Villaverde Norte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.70 expected goals for Panadería Pulido and 0.93 for Villaverde Norte, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Panadería Pulido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Panadería Pulido win
86.0% probability
Expected goals
3.70 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panadería Pulido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panadería Pulido to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 9% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.70 goals for Panadería Pulido and 0.93 for Villaverde Norte, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 58%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–07.6%
- 4–17.1%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Panadería Pulido
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Playas Sotavento · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mensajero · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs San Miguel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laguna de Duero · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Anaza · 5-2 (W)
Villaverde Norte
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Panadería Pulido | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Tenerife C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Marino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Las Palmas III | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Mensajero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Los Llanos | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | San Bartolomé | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Anaza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brígida | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Estrella | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Playas Sotavento | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Laguna de Duero | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Villaverde Norte | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panadería Pulido win, at 86.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.