Gípedo Agíou Konstantínou · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Panagriniakos vs Chalkis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Panagriniakos and 1.10 for Chalkis, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Panagriniakos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panagriniakos win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panagriniakos home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chalkis away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panagriniakos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 16% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Panagriniakos and 1.10 for Chalkis, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.3%
- 1–16.9%
Recent form
Panagriniakos
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Preveza · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamisos Messini · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 6-3 (W)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Petriti · 1-2 (L)
Chalkis
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zakynthos · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panelefsiniakos · 0-6 (L)
- 2023-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panagriniakos · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Digenis Neochori · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vyzas Megara · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panagriniakos win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.