· Analysis updated 02:16 UTC
Panagriniakos vs Panachaiki FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Panagriniakos and 2.92 for Panachaiki FC, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Panachaiki FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panachaiki FC win
77.9% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 2.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panagriniakos home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panachaiki FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panachaiki FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 9% / 13% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Panagriniakos and 2.92 for Panachaiki FC, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.2%
- 0–38.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.5%
Recent form
Panagriniakos
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Filiates · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Preveza · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamisos Messini · 1-2 (L)
Panachaiki FC
- 2026-10-18T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pallixouriakos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panagriniakos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panegialios · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthouriakos · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Preveza | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Panachaiki FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Atromitos Patras | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Pallixouriakos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Plataria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aris Filiates | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Tilikratis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 10 | Panagriniakos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Lefkimmi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panachaiki FC win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.