Olympic Stadium of Athens · Analysis updated 17:18 UTC
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.10 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Panathinaikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panathinaikos home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panathinaikos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.10 for AEK Athens FC, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.4% vs market 42.4%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.7% | 39.7% | 2.52 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.9% | 27.9% | 3.58 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 32.5% | 32.4% | 3.09 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.1% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Panathinaikos
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 4 | Aris Thessalonikis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 5 | PAOK | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | OFI | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.