Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.85 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Panathinaikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Panathinaikos win

72.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Panathinaikos home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asteras Tripolis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panathinaikos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.85 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Panathinaikos win72%

Draw17%

Asteras Tripolis win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–011.1%
2–19.5%
1–09.2%
3–09.0%
1–17.8%

Recent form

Panathinaikos

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalamata · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Kifisia · 3-1 (W)

Asteras Tripolis

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	6	5	0	1	9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	4	2	0	13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	4	1	1	3	13
4	PAOK	6	4	0	2	5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	OFI	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	2	3	1	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Kifisia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Kalamata	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	1	2	3	-4	5
12	Atromitos	6	0	2	4	-4	2
13	Levadiakos	6	0	1	5	-11	1
14	Volos NFC	6	0	2	4	-6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Panathinaikos win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.