Panazol vs Chauvigny Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Panazol and 1.13 for Chauvigny, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Panazol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Panazol home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chauvigny away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panazol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Panazol and 1.13 for Chauvigny, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Panazol win43%

Draw27%

Chauvigny win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.3%
0–19.2%
2–18.7%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Panazol

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angers SCO II · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vendée Fontenay · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Châtellerault · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St-Philbert Gd Lieu · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Les Sables · 4-1 (W)

Chauvigny

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendée Fontenay · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châtellerault · 5-2 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St-Philbert Gd Lieu · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Sables · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Challans · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Le Poiré sur Vie	26	17	6	3	21	57
2	UF Touraine	26	17	5	4	31	56
3	Nantes II	26	15	6	5	17	51
4	Challans	26	12	10	4	26	46
5	La Châtaigneraie	26	10	9	7	-3	39
6	Vendée Fontenay	26	9	5	12	-8	32
7	Les Sables	26	9	5	12	-1	32
8	Panazol	26	11	3	12	1	32
9	Châteauroux II	26	9	4	13	-3	31
10	St-Philbert Gd Lieu	26	8	6	12	-12	30
11	USSA Vertou	26	7	7	12	-6	28
12	Chauvigny	26	4	12	10	-12	24
13	Angers SCO II	26	4	8	14	-14	20
14	Châtellerault	26	4	6	16	-37	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.