· Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Panedessaikos vs Mpam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Panedessaikos and 1.81 for Mpam, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Mpam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mpam win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mpam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Panedessaikos and 1.81 for Mpam, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 50% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Panedessaikos
Mpam
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panedessaikos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Mpam | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Agiou Nikolaou | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Panedessaikos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mpam win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.