· Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Panegialios vs Panagriniakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Panegialios and 0.65 for Panagriniakos, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Panegialios the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Panegialios win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
2.90 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panagriniakos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panegialios to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.90 goals for Panegialios and 0.65 for Panagriniakos, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.1%
- 3–011.7%
- 4–08.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Panegialios
Panagriniakos
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Filiates · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Preveza · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamisos Messini · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panegialios win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.