Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.13 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Olympiakos Piraeus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Panetolikos home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Olympiakos Piraeus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Panetolikos win34%

Draw29%

Olympiakos Piraeus win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.5%
1–011.9%
0–011.1%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Panetolikos

2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 3-1 (W)

Olympiakos Piraeus

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2025-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2025-01-06T16:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2024-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · Panetolikos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2024-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2023-11-25T15:30:00.000Z · Panetolikos 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2023-02-13T19:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 1-6 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2022-10-22T16:30:00.000Z · Panetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
2022-02-09T16:00:00.000Z · Panetolikos 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus (Cup)
2022-02-02T15:15:00.000Z · Panetolikos 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)

Super League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	6	5	0	1	9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	4	2	0	13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	4	1	1	3	13
4	PAOK	6	4	0	2	5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	OFI	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	2	3	1	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Kifisia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Kalamata	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	1	2	3	-4	5
12	Atromitos	6	0	2	4	-4	2
13	Levadiakos	6	0	1	5	-11	1
14	Volos NFC	6	0	2	4	-6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.