Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Panevėžys and 1.26 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Panevėžys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Panevėžys win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Panevėžys home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Tobol Kostanay away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panevėžys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Panevėžys and 1.26 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Panevėžys win47%

Draw24%

FK Tobol Kostanay win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.4%
1–08.9%
2–07.5%
1–27.1%

Recent form

Panevėžys

2026-10-17T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 3-1 (W)

FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Panevėžys win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.