Aukstaitijos Stadium · Analysis updated 02:34 UTC
Panevėžys vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Panevėžys and 1.50 for TransINVEST Vilnius, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives TransINVEST Vilnius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panevėžys home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
TransINVEST Vilnius away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Panevėžys
- 2026-10-17T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 3-1 (W)
TransINVEST Vilnius
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Šiauliai · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-10T15:45:00.000Z · Panevėžys 2-0 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-06-12T15:30:00.000Z · Panevėžys 1-2 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-12T11:15:00.000Z · Panevėžys 2-1 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-02-11T12:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 4-1 TransINVEST Vilnius (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-02-21T12:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 1-3 TransINVEST Vilnius (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-09T14:25:00.000Z · Panevėžys 0-0 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2024-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 2-1 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2024-06-19T15:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 0-3 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2024-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 1-1 TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2024-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Panevėžys 0-0 TransINVEST Vilnius (Super Cup)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 37 | 54 |
| 2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 50 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 49 |
| 5 | Banga | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 42 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 42 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -14 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 31 | 4 | 14 | 13 | -22 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -34 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.