Panionios vs Apollon Pontou Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Panionios and 0.59 for Apollon Pontou, a combined total of 1.61. That distribution gives Panionios the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

79.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.01 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Panionios home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Pontou away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panionios to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 34% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Panionios and 0.59 for Apollon Pontou, a combined 1.61 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Panionios win45%

Draw34%

Apollon Pontou win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score29%

Correct score

1–020.3%
0–020.1%
1–112.0%
0–111.9%
2–010.3%

Recent form

Panionios

2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Pyrgos 1968 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis II · 2-0 (W)

Apollon Pontou

2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Marko	5	5	0	0	6	15
2	Larisa	5	3	2	0	6	11
3	Panionios	5	3	1	1	2	10
4	Ellas Syros	5	2	3	0	6	9
5	Kallithea	4	3	0	1	3	9
6	Panthrakikos	5	2	2	1	2	8
7	Panserraikos	5	2	1	2	2	7
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Apollon Pontou	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	PAOK II	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Niki Volos	5	1	1	3	-1	4
13	Nestos Chrisoupolis	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Zakynthos	5	0	2	3	-5	2
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	0	2	3	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.