Dimotiko Stadio Serron · Analysis updated 09:49 UTC
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Panserraikos and 0.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus II, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Panserraikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panserraikos win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panserraikos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympiakos Piraeus II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panserraikos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 17% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Panserraikos and 0.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus II, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–018.1%
- 1–017.2%
- 3–012.7%
- 0–08.2%
- 2–17.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.44 (model 71.1% vs market 64.4%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.44 | 64.4% | 71.1% | 1.41 | +6.7 |
| Match result | Away | 26.00 | 3.5% | 5.9% | 16.95 | +2.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.60 | 21.0% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.02 | 94.5% | 94.1% | 1.06 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.17 | 78.2% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 84.5% | 83.3% | 1.20 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.3% | 16.7% | 5.99 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.60 | 35.6% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Panserraikos
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Kallithea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis II · 1-0 (W)
Olympiakos Piraeus II
- 2026-09-27T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Panserraikos · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Panionios · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T15:15:00.000Z · Panserraikos 4-1 Olympiakos Piraeus II (Super League 2)
- 2022-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 4-0 Olympiakos Piraeus II (Super League 2)
- 2021-12-05T12:45:00.000Z · Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus II (Super League 2)
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Panionios | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Panserraikos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Larisa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Niki Volos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Ellas Syros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Panthrakikos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Apollon Pontou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | PAOK II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panserraikos win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.