Dimotiko Stadio Serron · Referee F. Polychronis · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Panserraikos vs Panetolikos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.25 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Panetolikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panetolikos win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panserraikos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panetolikos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Panserraikos
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Kallithea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis II · 1-0 (W)
Panetolikos
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 3-2 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2026-03-22T17:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2025-12-08T16:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2025-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2025-04-23T15:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2024-12-22T13:30:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-0 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2024-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-3 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2024-03-16T18:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 0-3 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
- 2024-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Panserraikos 2-3 Panetolikos (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panetolikos win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.