· Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
PAOK II vs Nestos Chrisoupolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for PAOK II and 1.25 for Nestos Chrisoupolis, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Nestos Chrisoupolis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nestos Chrisoupolis win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nestos Chrisoupolis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nestos Chrisoupolis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 15% / 30% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for PAOK II and 1.25 for Nestos Chrisoupolis, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.7%
- 0–017.4%
- 0–213.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–08.7%
Recent form
PAOK II
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Larisa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 3-1 (W)
Nestos Chrisoupolis
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kallithea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Panserraikos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Panionios | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Panserraikos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Larisa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Niki Volos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Ellas Syros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Panthrakikos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Apollon Pontou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | PAOK II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nestos Chrisoupolis win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.