Toumba Stadium · Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for PAOK and 1.63 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T16:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · PAOK 0-3 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2026-02-15T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 0-0 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · PAOK 2-0 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · PAOK 1-0 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z · PAOK 3-2 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-02-02T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-2 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-01-09T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC (Cup)
- 2024-12-18T19:00:00.000Z · PAOK 0-1 AEK Athens FC (Cup)
- 2024-10-20T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Larisa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Atromitos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Kifisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Volos NFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | PAOK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Panserraikos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Marko | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ellas Syros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Panionios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Niki Volos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 | Panthrakikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Apollon Pontou | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Panetolikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Kallithea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Pyrgos 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Trikala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 28 | Zakynthos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.