Toumba Stadium · Referee Andrea Colombo, Italy · Analysis updated 09:25 UTC
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for PAOK and 1.45 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PAOK win
70.6% probability
Expected goals
3.13 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aris Thessalonikis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
Aris Thessalonikis
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · PAOK 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2025-12-07T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2025-12-03T19:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis (Cup)
- 2025-01-19T17:00:00.000Z · PAOK 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · PAOK 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2024-03-10T19:00:00.000Z · PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2024-01-07T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
- 2023-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PAOK win, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.