PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for PAOK and 1.08 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

PAOK win

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asteras Tripolis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PAOK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for PAOK and 1.08 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

PAOK win67%

Draw18%

Asteras Tripolis win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.9%
1–17.9%
3–17.7%
1–07.3%

Recent form

PAOK

2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)

Asteras Tripolis

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	6	5	0	1	9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	4	2	0	13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	4	1	1	3	13
4	PAOK	6	4	0	2	5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	OFI	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	2	3	1	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Kifisia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Kalamata	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	1	2	3	-4	5
12	Atromitos	6	0	2	4	-4	2
13	Levadiakos	6	0	1	5	-11	1
14	Volos NFC	6	0	2	4	-6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is PAOK win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.