· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
PAOK vs FK Partizan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for PAOK and 1.70 for FK Partizan, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
PAOK win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Partizan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PAOK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for PAOK and 1.70 for FK Partizan, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
FK Partizan
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PAOK win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.