Toumba Stadium · Referee Alexandros Katsikogiannis · Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
PAOK vs Kalamata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for PAOK and 0.93 for Kalamata, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PAOK win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalamata away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PAOK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for PAOK and 0.93 for Kalamata, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
Kalamata
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PAOK win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.