Toumba Stadium · Referee A. Evangelou · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
PAOK vs Levadiakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.44 expected goals for PAOK and 0.55 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PAOK win
79.1% probability
Expected goals
2.44 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levadiakos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.0%
- 1–012.3%
- 3–012.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–07.4%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
Levadiakos
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2026-03-15T16:00:00.000Z · PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2025-11-30T17:00:00.000Z · PAOK 3-2 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2025-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-4 Levadiakos (Cup)
- 2025-01-26T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2024-10-06T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 2-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2023-01-30T16:00:00.000Z · PAOK 3-2 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2022-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · PAOK 1-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2019-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · PAOK 5-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
- 2018-12-17T17:30:00.000Z · PAOK 2-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PAOK win, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.