· Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Pápai Perutz vs Tatabánya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Pápai Perutz and 2.18 for Tatabánya, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Tatabánya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tatabánya win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pápai Perutz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tatabánya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tatabánya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 10% / 18% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Pápai Perutz and 2.18 for Tatabánya, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.7%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Pápai Perutz
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatabánya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bicskei · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haladás VSE · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MTE 1904 · 0-0 (D)
Tatabánya
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárom · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1908 SZAC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti TE · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorogi FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 2 | Tatabánya | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Haladás VSE | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 25 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sopron | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Bicskei | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puskás II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | MTE 1904 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Komárom | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Gyori ETO II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Veszprém | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Pápai Perutz | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -26 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tatabánya win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.