· Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Papua New Guinea and 1.18 for New Caledonia, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Papua New Guinea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Papua New Guinea win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Papua New Guinea home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New Caledonia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Papua New Guinea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Papua New Guinea and 1.18 for New Caledonia, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Papua New Guinea
- 2025-11-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-20T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-13T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-12-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-11-17T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 1-2 (L)
New Caledonia
- 2026-09-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Papua New Guinea win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.