HFC Bank Stadium · Referee C. Kawana-Waugh · Analysis updated 02:19 UTC
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Papua New Guinea and 1.41 for Tahiti, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Papua New Guinea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Papua New Guinea home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tahiti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Papua New Guinea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Papua New Guinea and 1.41 for Tahiti, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Papua New Guinea
- 2025-11-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-20T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-13T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-12-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-11-17T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 1-2 (L)
Tahiti
- 2025-03-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-11-18T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Samoa · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Nations Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 |
| 2 | Fiji | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Vanuatu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 5 | Samoa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 6 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Tonga | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.