· Analysis updated 07:25 UTC
Papua New Guinea W vs Fiji W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.82 for Fiji W, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Papua New Guinea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Papua New Guinea W win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Papua New Guinea W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Papua New Guinea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.82 for Fiji W, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Papua New Guinea W
- 2026-09-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-15T07:10:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 0-1 (L)
Fiji W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Papua New Guinea W win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.