· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Papua New Guinea W vs Solomon Islands W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.98 expected goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.17 for Solomon Islands W, a combined total of 5.15. That distribution gives Papua New Guinea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Papua New Guinea W win
84.8% probability
Expected goals
3.98 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Papua New Guinea W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Solomon Islands W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Papua New Guinea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.98 goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.17 for Solomon Islands W, a combined 5.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.1%
- 4–17.1%
- 3–06.1%
- 4–06.0%
- 5–15.6%
Recent form
Papua New Guinea W
- 2026-09-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-15T07:10:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 0-1 (L)
Solomon Islands W
- 2026-09-23T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-05T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Samoa W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-02T06:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-02-27T06:00:00.000Z · H vs American Samoa W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Papua New Guinea W win, at 84.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.