Papua New Guinea W vs Vanuatu W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.08 for Vanuatu W, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Papua New Guinea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Papua New Guinea W win

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Papua New Guinea W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vanuatu W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Papua New Guinea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Papua New Guinea W and 1.08 for Vanuatu W, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Papua New Guinea W win63%

Draw20%

Vanuatu W win18%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.8%
2–09.2%
1–18.9%
1–08.3%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Papua New Guinea W

2026-09-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands W · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-26T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji W · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-15T07:10:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 0-1 (L)

Vanuatu W

2026-09-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Papua New Guinea W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T04:00:00.000Z · H vs New Caledonia W · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-20T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiji W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Solomon Islands W · 1-1 (D)
2026-03-05T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Papua New Guinea W win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.