· Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Para Hills Knights vs MetroStars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Para Hills Knights and 3.10 for MetroStars, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives MetroStars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MetroStars win
79.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 3.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Para Hills Knights home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MetroStars away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–46.5%
Recent form
Para Hills Knights
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Comets · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide United II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · A vs West Adelaide · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Playford City Patriots · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 0-11 (L)
MetroStars
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs West Torrens Birkalla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T05:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 0-9 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-03-28T06:45:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 0-7 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 4-4 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 1-2 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-07-13T07:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 0-0 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 0-5 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2020-08-29T05:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 2-3 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2020-07-11T05:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 0-0 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2019-05-25T05:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 1-4 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
- 2019-02-23T04:30:00.000Z · Para Hills Knights 1-2 MetroStars (South Australia NPL)
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MetroStars win, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.