Estadio Fiscal de Talca · Referee Keylor Herrera Villalobos, Costa Rica · Analysis updated 21:02 UTC
Paraguay U20 vs Norway U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Paraguay U20 and 0.97 for Norway U20, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Paraguay U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paraguay U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paraguay U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Paraguay U20 and 0.97 for Norway U20, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.2%
- 1–014.0%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Paraguay U20
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Ukraine U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea Republic U20 · 0-0 (D)
Norway U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Morocco U20 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | France U20 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | United States U20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Japan U20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Mexico U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Norway U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Ukraine U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Spain U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | South Africa U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Korea Republic U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Paraguay U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Italy U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Nigeria U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Australia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Egypt U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | New Zealand U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Chile U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Panama U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Brazil U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Saudi Arabia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Cuba U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 24 | New Caledonia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -19 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.