· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Paraty vs Barra Mansa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Paraty and 1.52 for Barra Mansa, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Barra Mansa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Barra Mansa win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paraty home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barra Mansa away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barra Mansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Paraty and 1.52 for Barra Mansa, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Paraty
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs SE Belford Roxo · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra Mansa · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 7 de Abril · 1-1 (D)
Barra Mansa
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Macaense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardoso Moreira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio de Janeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barra Mansa win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.