· Analysis updated 16:26 UTC
Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Paraty and 2.33 for Rio de Janeiro, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Rio de Janeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio de Janeiro win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paraty home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio de Janeiro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio de Janeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 12% / 18% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Paraty and 2.33 for Rio de Janeiro, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.3%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.7%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Paraty
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs SE Belford Roxo · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra Mansa · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 7 de Abril · 1-1 (D)
Rio de Janeiro
- 2026-08-31T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs 7 de Abril · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-11-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Macaense · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SE Belford Roxo · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | SE Belford Roxo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RJ | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paduano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Campos AA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio de Janeiro win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.