· Analysis updated 02:40 UTC
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Paraty and 2.10 for Santa Cruz RJ, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Santa Cruz RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Cruz RJ win
69.1% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paraty home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Cruz RJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 12% / 19% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Paraty and 2.10 for Santa Cruz RJ, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.9%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–19.1%
Recent form
Paraty
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Búzios · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paduano · 0-3 (L)
Santa Cruz RJ
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Cruz RJ win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.