· Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Paraty vs SE Belford Roxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Paraty and 2.92 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives SE Belford Roxo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SE Belford Roxo win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 2.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paraty home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SE Belford Roxo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SE Belford Roxo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 13% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Paraty and 2.92 for SE Belford Roxo, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–47.1%
Recent form
Paraty
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Búzios · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paduano · 0-3 (L)
SE Belford Roxo
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paduano · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Macaense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs 7 de Abril · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Friburguense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · Paraty 0-4 SE Belford Roxo (Carioca B2)
- 2025-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · Paraty 0-1 SE Belford Roxo (Carioca B2)
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SE Belford Roxo win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.