· Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Parauapebas vs Gavião Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Parauapebas and 1.18 for Gavião, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Gavião the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parauapebas home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gavião away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gavião to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 29% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Parauapebas and 1.18 for Gavião, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Parauapebas
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Altamira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gavião · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Altamira · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gavião · 0-1 (L)
- 2016-04-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 0-6 (L)
Gavião
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Parauapebas · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altamira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Parauapebas · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paraense · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paraense · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paraense A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavião | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Sport Belem | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Pedreira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Belenense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Vénus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Pinheirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Tesla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Parauapebas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Paraense SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Altamira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | ESMAC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
| 12 | CA Vila Rica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.