Nagano U Stadium · Analysis updated 09:06 UTC
Parceiro Nagano vs Fukui United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Parceiro Nagano and 1.10 for Fukui United, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Parceiro Nagano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Parceiro Nagano win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parceiro Nagano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fukui United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parceiro Nagano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Parceiro Nagano and 1.10 for Fukui United, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Parceiro Nagano
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Nara Club · 0-1 (L)
Fukui United
- 2025-06-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-06-01T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-05-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Honda · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-05-26T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-05-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Bundy Onse Kakogawa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Parceiro Nagano win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.