Nagano U Stadium · Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Parceiro Nagano vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Parceiro Nagano and 1.20 for Thespakusatsu Gunma, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Parceiro Nagano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parceiro Nagano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thespakusatsu Gunma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 71.5% | 73.4% | 1.36 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.1% | 33.2% | 3.01 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.9% | 40.2% | 2.49 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 59.8% | 59.8% | 1.67 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 68.8% | 66.8% | 1.50 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Parceiro Nagano
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Nara Club · 0-1 (L)
Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-07-12T10:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 0-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
- 2025-03-01T05:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 3-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
- 2019-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 2-3 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
- 2019-06-16T08:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 0-1 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
- 2018-07-15T10:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
- 2018-05-06T04:00:00.000Z · Parceiro Nagano 2-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League)
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Kitakyushu | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Fukushima United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Biwako Shiga | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.