· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Paredes vs Lusitânia Lourosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Paredes and 1.37 for Lusitânia Lourosa, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Paredes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paredes win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paredes home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusitânia Lourosa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paredes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Paredes and 1.37 for Lusitânia Lourosa, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Paredes
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maria da Fonte · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermesinde · 3-1 (W)
Lusitânia Lourosa
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Madalena · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paredes win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.