Paris FC vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.35 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Paris FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paris FC home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Paris FC and 1.35 for Lyon, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Paris FC win43%

Draw24%

Lyon win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.0%
1–08.4%
1–27.6%
0–17.1%

Recent form

Paris FC

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)

Lyon

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Paris FC 0-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2026-03-08T19:45:00.000Z · Paris FC 1-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2025-10-29T20:05:00.000Z · Paris FC 3-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.