Stade Jean Bouin · Referee Jeremy Stinat, France · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Paris FC vs Strasbourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.98 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Paris FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris FC win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris FC home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Strasbourg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 52.6% vs market 41.0%, edge +11.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 41.0% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +11.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.9% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.1% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.0% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 59.0% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -11.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Paris FC
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · Paris FC 2-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Paris FC 0-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2025-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · Paris FC 2-3 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2015-01-30T19:30:00.000Z · Paris FC 1-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 3)
- 2014-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Paris FC 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 3)
- 2014-03-01T19:00:00.000Z · Paris FC 2-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 3)
- 2013-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Paris FC 2-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 3)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris FC win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.