· Analysis updated 09:33 UTC
Paris FC vs UNFP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.73 for UNFP, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Paris FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris FC win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris FC home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
UNFP away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Paris FC and 0.73 for UNFP, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Paris FC
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)
UNFP
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris FC win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.