Stade Charlety · Referee E. Rochebiliere · Analysis updated 23:27 UTC
Paris FC W vs Lens W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Paris FC W and 0.70 for Lens W, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Paris FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris FC W win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris FC W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lens W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris FC W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Paris FC W and 0.70 for Lens W, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.4%
Recent form
Paris FC W
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg W · 2-0 (W)
Lens W
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · Paris FC W 4-1 Lens W (Feminine Division 1)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Paris FC W 6-2 Lens W (Feminine Division 1)
- 2025-11-07T18:00:00.000Z · Paris FC W 2-1 Lens W (Feminine Division 1)
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | Nantes W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Montpellier W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint-Malo W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris FC W win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.