Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain win

63.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paris Saint Germain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auxerre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win64%

Draw18%

Auxerre win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.1%
3–17.6%
1–17.3%
2–07.0%
2–25.9%

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)

Auxerre

2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.