Parc des Princes · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 3.00 for Barcelona, a combined total of 6.50. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris Saint Germain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–24.8%
- 3–34.8%
- 4–24.2%
- 4–34.2%
- 2–24.1%
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Barcelona
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2024-04-16T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2024-04-10T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-3 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2021-03-10T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2021-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2017-03-08T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-6 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2017-02-14T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2015-04-21T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-2 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2015-04-15T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
- 2014-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.