Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.38 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paris Saint Germain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win36%

Draw26%

Lyon win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.2%
1–08.9%
1–28.4%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)

Lyon

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2025-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2025-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2024-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2024-05-25T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lyon (Coupe de France)
2024-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2023-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2023-04-02T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2022-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
2022-01-09T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.