Parc des Princes · Referee Jerome Brisard · Analysis updated 15:54 UTC
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.05 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris Saint Germain home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 41.2% vs market 38.0%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 38.0% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +3.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.2% | 81.7% | 1.22 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 66.1% | 66.3% | 1.51 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.4% | 15.4% | 6.49 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.5% | 18.3% | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.8% | 84.6% | 1.18 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.80 | 33.9% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 62.0% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
Lyon
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-05-25T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lyon (Coupe de France)
- 2024-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-02T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-01-09T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.