Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.38 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paris Saint Germain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monaco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win39%

Draw25%

Monaco win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–08.6%
2–18.5%
0–18.3%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)

Monaco

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-06T19:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2026-02-25T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Monaco (UEFA Champions League)
2026-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-2 Monaco (UEFA Champions League)
2025-11-29T16:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2025-02-07T20:05:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2025-01-05T16:30:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Monaco (Trophée des Champions)
2024-12-18T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2024-03-01T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-0 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2023-11-24T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 5-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
2023-02-11T16:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.