Paris Saint Germain vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.98 for Nice, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain win

53.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paris Saint Germain home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win53%

Draw24%

Nice win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.9%
1–111.6%
2–09.8%
2–19.6%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)

Nice

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-21T20:05:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-11-01T16:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-04-25T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-05-15T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-03-13T20:10:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Nice (Coupe de France)
2023-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
2023-04-08T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-03-05T20:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 0-1 Nice (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	1	9
8	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
15	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.